Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Building game?

Building + Science

Of 58 developers who shipped a Science Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $22k, ×35 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.3M, ×11659 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 91 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $99k → $3.2k → $719 → $33k → $63k → $59k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $22k (exactly $21,878)
Top 25% $175k (exactly $175,383)
Top 5% $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 171
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 117,507 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $22k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game · EA older $29.99 16,815 93% 504k $15M (exactly $15,128,456) Camshaft Software Ltd
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Prehistoric Kingdom · EA older $29.99 5,640 90% 169k $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) Blue Meridian
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.