Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Building + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Only 19 developers shipped a Building Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Emberward, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×44 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3605 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $2.4k → $148k → $91k → $9.4k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Median $27k (exactly $27,432)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $148,352)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 29
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 6,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Backpack Hero 2023 · $4.5M Emberward 2026 · $2.3M Cardboard Town 2023 · $1.2M ORX 2022 · EA · $381k Cube Chaos 2025 · $223k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
ORX · EA older $19.99 636 68% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) johnbell
Cube Chaos $11.99 621 95% 19k $223k (exactly $223,374) Wunarg
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Another Farm Roguelike: Rebirth $6.99 433 69% 13k $91k (exactly $90,800) Zabbo Games
Tiny Kingdom $10.99 150 79% 4.5k $49k (exactly $49,455) neltile
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Toads of the Bayou $9.99 137 72% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) La Grange
Islantiles $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Thunderrock Innovations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.