Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Roguelike?

Building + Roguelike

Of 164 developers who shipped a Building Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 287 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 287 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 287 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $8.2k → $3.6k → $6.5k → $6.2k → $1.9k → $4.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,059)
Top 5% $584k (exactly $584,108)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 323
Announced 287
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 99,285 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 287 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Mini Motorways older $9.99 23,561 96% 707k $7.1M (exactly $7,061,232) Dinosaur Polo Club
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Axon TD: Uprising - Tower Defense $19.99 706 85% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Element Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.