Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Building game?

Building + Nature

Of 268 developers who shipped a Nature Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 486 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2710 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 486 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 486 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 268
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $8.7k → $3.3k → $1.7k → $7.8k → $3.4k → $5.8k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 268
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $58,682)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949)
Developers, 2 yr 268
Released games 601
Announced 486
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 149,749 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 126 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 486 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Planet Zoo 2019 · $110M ICARUS 2021 · $59M Timberborn 2026 · $40M Farming Simulator 25 2024 · $36M WILD HEARTS™ 2023 · $22M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.