Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Match 3?

Building + Match 3

Only 6 developers shipped a Building Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mythmatch, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $12k against a market of $630. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 18.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 6 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $3.3k → $2.5k → $74k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $356 (exactly $356)
Median $12k (exactly $11,752)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,363)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 73
Announced 6
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Match 3
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 959 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke
Last Resort Island older $8.99 173 87% 5.2k $47k (exactly $46,658) rokaplay
Ink Reverie $9.99 146 74% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Rolling Cat Studio
Story of Animal Sprite older $8.99 117 89% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,555) Lunaforge Studios
Storm Tale older $9.99 79 89% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Green Sauce Games
Storm Tale 2 older $9.99 74 89% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Green Sauce Games
Tales of the Orient: The Rising Sun older $9.99 68 83% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) Green Sauce Games
Jewel Match Origins - Palais Imperial Collector's Edition older $9.99 59 89% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Suricate Software
Mystika 3 : Awakening of the dragons older $5.99 72 93% 2.2k $13k (exactly $12,938) Unikgame
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 3 older $8.99 47 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,676) rokaplay
Jewel Match Dracula Collector's Edition $13.99 28 89% 840 $12k (exactly $11,752) Suricate Software
爪爪改造家 PawRebuild $0.99 23 95% 690 $683 (exactly $683) 冷笑黑妖
Mineshaft · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Z Sculpt Entertainment
魔法少女甜心3D Magical Girl Sweetheart 3D $0.99 12 100% 360 $356 (exactly $356) 冷笑黑妖
爪爪改造家2 PawRebuild 2 $0.99 7 85% 210 $208 (exactly $208) 冷笑黑妖
FISTAGON $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Dawn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.