Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Building game?

Building + Magic

Of 121 developers who shipped a Magic Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 289 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1225 the market median. Revenue is up 550% on the market; 289 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 550% on the market, 289 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $3.4k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $2.9k → $3.4k → $19k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,612)
Top 5% $769k (exactly $769,415)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 321
Announced 289
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 550% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 62,887 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 289 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
PixARK older $19.99 11,142 73% 334k $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) Snail Games USA
Kingdom Rush 5: Alliance TD older $19.99 10,363 87% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,214,691) Ironhide Game Studio
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Kingdom Rush Frontiers - Tower Defense older $9.99 10,011 96% 300k $3.0M (exactly $3,000,297) Ironhide Game Studio
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
Citadel: Forged with Fire older $14.99 5,004 67% 150k $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) Blue Isle Studios
REKA · EA older $19.99 2,989 82% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) Emberstorm Entertainment
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Masters of Albion · EA $24.99 607 64% 18k $455k (exactly $455,068) 22cans
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.