Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Hex Grid game?

Building + Hex Grid

Of 47 developers who shipped a Building Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×663 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $11k → $600 → $2.6k → $3.3k → $20k → $1.6k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,228)
Top 5% $416k (exactly $416,192)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 120
Announced 93
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 7,994 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M Plan B: Terraform 2025 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
MoteMancer · EA $29.99 243 91% 7.3k $219k (exactly $218,627) CyanAvatar Studios
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Empire Builder $19.99 42 95% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Zombie Possum Games Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.