Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Building game?

Building + Fantasy

Of 327 developers who shipped a Fantasy Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 735 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1996 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 735 games are announced against 196 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 735 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 327
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $5.7k → $3.7k → $9.6k → $4.9k → $1.5k → $5.8k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 327
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,313)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,536)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342)
Developers, 2 yr 327
Released games 912
Announced 735
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 129,781 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 154 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 735 games are announced against 196 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Graveyard Keeper older $19.99 39,547 86% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,716,336) Lazy Bear Games
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Thronefall $12.99 22,966 96% 689k $8.9M (exactly $8,949,850) GrizzlyGames, Mythwright
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.