Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Building + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 55 developers who shipped a Building Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 145 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6537 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 145 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 145 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $1.6k → $776 → $1.6k → $10k → $7.8k → $1.5k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,360)
Top 5% $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 204
Announced 145
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 45,983 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 145 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Out of Ore older $24.99 3,978 85% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) North Modding Company AB
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Wrench · EA older $29.99 1,898 84% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,707,631) Missing Digit
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Island Market Simulator $12.99 171 76% 5.1k $67k (exactly $66,639) Zentium Studio
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.