Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Board Game?

Trading + Board Game

Only 14 developers shipped a Trading Board Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Supercar Collection Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×1254 the market median. Revenue is up 1390% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1390% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Trading + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,572)
Top 5% $595k (exactly $595,462)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 37
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1390% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Board Game
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Richman 4 older $5.99 1,614 74% 48k $290k (exactly $290,036) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Console Shop Simulator · EA $15.99 516 92% 15k $248k (exactly $247,525) Lance Games
Istanbul: Digital Edition older $12.99 258 92% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Acram Digital
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Richman 8 older $7.99 214 64% 6.4k $51k (exactly $51,296) SOFTSTAR TECHNOLOGY(BEIJING)CO.LTD
Catan VR older $14.99 86 73% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Experiment 7
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel
Trailmarks $8.99 12 91% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Trailmarks HQ
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher
Billionaire MAX $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Bunijia
World War Forex · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.