Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Board Game?

Collectathon + Board Game

Only 18 developers shipped a Collectathon Board Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Supercar Collection Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. Revenue is down 100% on the market, with 12 games announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.4k → $269 → $898 → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $959 (exactly $959)
Top 5% $595k (exactly $595,462)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 55
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Board Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,660 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Tokaido older $11.99 147 68% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Funforge
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
The Dope Game older $4.99 188 79% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Tenth&Hess Games
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Tetra Tactics older $14.99 48 79% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) Jabari Alii, Adrian Marple, manadream
Takoyaki Party Survival older $2.99 222 94% 6.7k $20k (exactly $19,913) KIMIDORI SOFT
Hamster on Rails older $14.99 44 95% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Virtual Arts Studio
CandySweet older $19.99 14 78% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Gamesforgames
Anime Artist 2: Lovely Danya older $1.99 110 88% 3.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,567) Neoclassic Games
Haulin' Oats $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gramps Games
Animal Run Relay $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) youdoyou.motto
Number Stomper $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) James Castle
Diamond Painting $7.99 4 75% 120 $959 (exactly $959) LeiZna
一橋動物記 $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) wataru
Nightmare Mines $3.99 7 100% 210 $838 (exactly $838) DreamSmith
さんよん ~三女?四対!~ $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Pgames
CardFarm · EA $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) axel_hollow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.