Should I ship a Physics BMX game?
BMX + Physics
Only 11 developers shipped a Physics BMX game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, STORROR Parkour Pro, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1916 the market median. Revenue is up 8720% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.1k (exactly $5,100) |
| Top 25% | $147k (exactly $146,941) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 32 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8720% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- BMX, Physics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,106 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
BMX with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
Comparable games
Descenders 2019 · $15M 
BMX Streets 2024 · $3.3M 
STORROR Parkour Pro 2025 · EA · $1.2M 
MAVRIX by Matt Jones 2026 · $1.2M 
Amazing Frog? 2 2022 · EA · $435k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Descenders | older | $24.99 | 19,836 95% | 595k | $15M (exactly $14,871,049) | RageSquid |
| | BMX Streets | older | $24.99 | 4,366 80% | 131k | $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) | Mash Games |
| | STORROR Parkour Pro | · EA | $24.99 | 1,605 71% | 48k | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) | Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios |
| | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
| | Amazing Frog? 2 | · EA older | $19.99 | 726 77% | 22k | $435k (exactly $435,382) | Fayju |
 | BMX The Game | · EA older | $24.99 | 448 60% | 13k | $336k (exactly $335,866) | Barspin Studios |
 | Streetdog BMX | $24.99 | 196 94% | 5.9k | $147k (exactly $146,941) | Yeah Us! Games | |
 | VMX | · EA | $14.99 | 229 89% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Break Free Interactive |
 | BIKEOUT | older | $24.99 | 75 42% | 2.3k | $56k (exactly $56,228) | Black Swan |
 | STREET UNi X | older | $19.99 | 78 96% | 2.3k | $47k (exactly $46,777) | daffodil & friends |
 | Bananitro | $3.99 | 47 100% | 1.4k | $5.6k (exactly $5,626) | Inventario | |
 | Jumbo Scooter | $5.00 | 34 85% | 1.0k | $5.1k (exactly $5,100) | BepeDev | |
 | pedalverse | $4.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) | FuristicStudio | |
 | Legends BMX | $9.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Saga Legends Games | |
 | Hydrofoil Surfing | $4.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Nightwork Studios | |
 | Bike Park Simulator: BMX, Dirt Jump & MTB | · EA | $7.99 | 2 0% | 60 | $479 (exactly $479) | Hard Shark Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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