Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Base Building

Of 60 developers who shipped a Base Building Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.7M, ×12420 the market median. Revenue is up 310% on the market; 135 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 310% on the market, 135 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $6.9k → $115k → $6.6k → $5.8k → $17k → $2.4k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,742)
Top 5% $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 142
Announced 135
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 310% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 180,265 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $7.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Chernobylite Complete Edition older $29.99 12,416 81% 372k $11M (exactly $11,170,675) The Farm 51
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone · EA $39.99 528 62% 16k $633k (exactly $633,442) The Farm 51
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.