Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building FPS?

FPS + Base Building

Of 67 developers who shipped a Base Building FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 221 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $26M, ×17852 the market median. Revenue is up 450% on the market; 221 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 450% on the market, 221 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $6.0k → $1.1k → $3.1k → $5.8k → $13k → $6.6k (still earning) → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $158k (exactly $158,321)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $26,742,683)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 225
Announced 221
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 450% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 465,096 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $26M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 221 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone · EA $39.99 528 62% 16k $633k (exactly $633,442) The Farm 51

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.