Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Artificial Intelligence

Of 39 developers who shipped an AI Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $510, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 53 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 53 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $14k → $1.6k → $748 → $505 → $564 → $59 (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $505 (exactly $505)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 138
Announced 53
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Tabletop; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $510, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Pure Chess Grandmaster Edition older $15.99 233 74% 7.0k $112k (exactly $111,770) Ripstone
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Roll Player - The Board Game older $14.99 180 91% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Mipmap Digital
Dark Chess older $12.99 155 76% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) Tall Troll Games
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
K2: Digital Edition $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Devon Games
AI Faith: Compute [>_AIFC] $4.99 55 81% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Beneloop.ai
Chess Kingdom $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Pinch Games
okey.gg · EA $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) yilmaz.games
Chesscent $7.99 14 64% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Alex did it
Sente $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Oxobox Games Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.