Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Only 8 developers shipped an AI Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Morbid Metal, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $390 against a market of $1.5k. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 9 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,126)
Top 5% $839k (exactly $839,233)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 9
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.25

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter
Price point
$5.25 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 5,520 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $390, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
ALTAIR BREAKER older $24.99 46 63% 1.4k $34k (exactly $34,486) Thirdverse, Co., Ltd.
AI-deal-Rays [General Edition] $5.99 112 58% 3.4k $20k (exactly $20,126) Riez-ON
FIREGROUND Modern War older $4.99 69 68% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Xyak-Xyak
История бомжа older $4.99 52 67% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Quarlellle
Medieval Arms older $14.99 12 66% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Goodline Games
Ultimate Bumper Cars - Dodgems older $17.99 6 83% 180 $3.2k (exactly $3,238) ogsoftgames
Helicopter Simulator 2020 older $9.99 8 0% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Technologies&Simulators
Japanese Psycho $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Ghost_RUS Games
Mad Bang Bang $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Tomorrow Baby
Synergy Strike $5.25 1 100% 30 $158 (exactly $158) strangeboltz
Base Defense $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Taranau Aliaksei
Hapless $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Zhang Huiqin
StarBay $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Cfyz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.