Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Artificial Intelligence

Of 114 developers who shipped an AI Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×951 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 182 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 182 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 114
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $5.4k → $3.6k → $713 → $598 → $5.4k → $538 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 114
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 114
Released games 239
Announced 182
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 17,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
Whispers from the Star $9.99 1,662 80% 50k $498k (exactly $498,101) Anuttacon
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
ALTDEUS: Beyond Chronos older $29.99 379 95% 11k $341k (exactly $340,986) MyDearest Inc.
Undercover $14.99 667 77% 20k $300k (exactly $299,950) intiny
AI Roguelite older $14.99 597 83% 18k $268k (exactly $268,471) Max Loh
Detective Sherlock: Shadow Stalker · EA $19.99 428 88% 13k $257k (exactly $256,672) Gamercury
Heatwave: Sam's Stay $11.99 650 94% 20k $234k (exactly $233,805) CodyFord
SPITE: Taking the Boss's Wife, Sister and Mother $7.99 770 82% 23k $185k (exactly $184,569) DIAMOND VISUAL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.