Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Building game?

Building + Artificial Intelligence

Of 45 developers who shipped an AI Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×8794 the market median. Revenue is up 295% on the market; 124 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 295% on the market, 124 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $7.1k → $537 → $3.7k → $175k → $190k → $7.0k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Median $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 25% $161k (exactly $161,442)
Top 5% $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 138
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 43,205 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Prehistoric Kingdom · EA older $29.99 5,640 90% 169k $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) Blue Meridian
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Sunset Motel $18.99 728 77% 22k $415k (exactly $414,742) Efkey Studios
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
Hypermarket Simulator · EA $14.99 423 80% 13k $190k (exactly $190,223) Croissant Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.