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Should I ship an Arena Shooter FPS?
FPS + Arena Shooter
Of 267 developers who shipped an Arena Shooter FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 472 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 472 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 45% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $208 (exactly $208) |
|---|---|
| Median | $628 (exactly $628) |
| Top 25% | $4.8k (exactly $4,797) |
| Top 5% | $283k (exactly $283,058) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 267 |
| Released games | 980 |
| Announced | 472 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- FPS
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Arena Shooter
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS, Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Boomer Shooter
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 59,684 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 172 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 472 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M 
Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M 
Serious Sam 4 2020 · $19M 
DUSK 2018 · $13M 
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ULTRAKILL | · EA older | $29.99 | 213,450 97% | 6.4M | $192M (exactly $192,040,965) | Arsi "Hakita" Patala |
| | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
| | Serious Sam 4 | older | $39.99 | 15,612 83% | 468k | $19M (exactly $18,729,716) | Croteam |
| | DUSK | older | $19.99 | 22,073 97% | 662k | $13M (exactly $13,237,178) | David Szymanski |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun | older | $21.99 | 15,741 90% | 472k | $10M (exactly $10,384,338) | Auroch Digital |
 | Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 4,820 69% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) | Flying Wild Hog |
 | Echo Point Nova | $24.99 | 7,521 96% | 226k | $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) | Greylock Studio | |
 | Quake | older | $9.99 | 13,962 96% | 419k | $4.2M (exactly $4,184,411) | id Software, Nightdive Studios, Machine… (id Software, Nightdive Studios, MachineGames) |
 | Prodeus | older | $24.99 | 5,505 92% | 165k | $4.1M (exactly $4,127,098) | Bounding Box Software Inc. |
 | AMID EVIL | older | $19.99 | 6,654 93% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) | Indefatigable |
 | Abyssus | $24.99 | 5,014 84% | 150k | $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) | DoubleMoose Games | |
 | VOID/BREAKER | · EA | $29.99 | 2,506 91% | 75k | $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) | Stubby Games |
 | BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT | $4.99 | 7,743 97% | 232k | $1.2M (exactly $1,159,127) | Joeveno | |
 | Vampire Hunters | $14.99 | 1,941 89% | 58k | $873k (exactly $872,868) | Gamecraft Studios | |
 | Bloodshed | $12.99 | 1,824 84% | 55k | $711k (exactly $710,813) | com8com1 Software | |
 | Project Warlock II | $16.99 | 1,233 80% | 37k | $628k (exactly $628,460) | Buckshot Software | |
 | IRON REBELLION | $24.99 | 772 84% | 23k | $579k (exactly $578,768) | Black Beach Studio | |
 | Cheaters Cheetah | $9.99 | 1,406 59% | 42k | $421k (exactly $421,378) | Acmore Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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