Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Arcade game?

Trading + Arcade

Only 15 developers shipped a Trading Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 45 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 45 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $1.3k → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,711)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,153)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 63
Announced 45
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 40%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 390 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rebel Galaxy older $19.99 7,255 85% 218k $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) Double Damage Games
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
Stellar Wanderer DX $19.99 60 71% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Dream Builder Studios
Parcel Delivery Simulator $6.99 114 61% 3.4k $24k (exactly $23,906) Digital Melody
Diamo XL older $0.99 547 93% 16k $16k (exactly $16,246) Adamvision Studios
Arcade Redemption older $9.99 26 61% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Pixidraft Studios
Heck Deck older $3.99 64 92% 1.9k $7.7k (exactly $7,661) torcado
E-Startup older $1.99 127 44% 3.8k $7.6k (exactly $7,582) Polytale Games
HorSteal $3.99 31 93% 930 $3.7k (exactly $3,711) JebiDeungDeung, Jebi Studio
Buscabit: A treasure hunter adventure $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Vaquita Games
Egglings $2.99 14 100% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Maurice Huchler
GOD CANDLE $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) cin
Stock Fighter $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) McTeddy Games
Shroom man's destination · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Mateusz Życzewski
Yolo Mode $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Billmeade Gaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.