Do I ship it?

GamesMOBAMOBA + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade MOBA?

MOBA + Arcade

Only 9 developers shipped an Arcade MOBA in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Last Flag, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.7k against a market of $1.3k. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 9 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MOBA + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $300 → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MOBA + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $86k (exactly $86,227)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 46
Announced 9
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MOBA
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus a balanced hero roster
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MOBA, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 822 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MOBA with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelitePoor odds10 devs · median $3.9k · 15 announced
  2. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $3.1k · 44 announced
  3. + Tower DefensePoor odds7 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FantasyPoor odds18 devs · median $2.7k · 85 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds19 devs · median $600 · 57 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds21 devs · median $479 · 53 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds53 devs · median $359 · 170 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds12 devs · median $359 · 33 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds23 devs · median $180 · 73 announced
  11. + Hero ShooterDead5 devs · median $49k · 24 announced
  12. + SurvivalDead6 devs · median $31k · 22 announced

All 50 pairs on the MOBA page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Flag $4.99 576 73% 17k $86k (exactly $86,227) Night Street Games
Alien Hallway older $4.99 122 72% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,263) Sigma Team Inc.
Cyber Clutch: Hot Import Nights $19.99 21 61% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) Gunpowder Games, Focuspoint Studios
Heat and Run · EA older $10.99 28 96% 840 $9.2k (exactly $9,232) DAMNATIO GAMES
Balance Breakers - A Battle Party Game · EA older $16.99 14 100% 420 $7.1k (exactly $7,136) Gamestry Lab
Sphere Shootout $4.99 20 100% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Sphere49
PizzaPanic $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Catnip Lab
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
Ambulance Chauffeur Simulator 2 older $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) ·
Wizard War VR older $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) TAEHOON KIM
Inkoid $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Spacecowboy
KOLOSS · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Breakpoint One, Simmation
Dragon and Phoenix $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) pengjianNiu
click frenzy $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) bulbafan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.