Should I ship an Arcade MOBA?
MOBA + Arcade
Only 9 developers shipped an Arcade MOBA in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Last Flag, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.7k against a market of $1.3k. 9 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) |
| Top 25% | $3.0k (exactly $2,994) |
| Top 5% | $86k (exactly $86,227) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 46 |
| Announced | 9 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MOBA, Arcade
- Price point
- $4.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 822 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MOBA with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RoguelitePoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + Hero ShooterDead
- + SurvivalDead
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Last Flag | $4.99 | 576 73% | 17k | $86k (exactly $86,227) | Night Street Games | |
| | Alien Hallway | older | $4.99 | 122 72% | 3.7k | $18k (exactly $18,263) | Sigma Team Inc. |
| | Cyber Clutch: Hot Import Nights | $19.99 | 21 61% | 630 | $13k (exactly $12,594) | Gunpowder Games, Focuspoint Studios | |
| | Heat and Run | · EA older | $10.99 | 28 96% | 840 | $9.2k (exactly $9,232) | DAMNATIO GAMES |
| | Balance Breakers - A Battle Party Game | · EA older | $16.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $7.1k (exactly $7,136) | Gamestry Lab |
| | Sphere Shootout | $4.99 | 20 100% | 600 | $3.0k (exactly $2,994) | Sphere49 | |
| | PizzaPanic | $8.99 | 10 80% | 300 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Catnip Lab | |
| | 女神試煉 Quest of Goddess | $4.99 | 18 94% | 540 | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) | DNAXCAT CO., LTD. | |
| | Ambulance Chauffeur Simulator 2 | older | $4.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) | · |
| | Wizard War VR | older | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | TAEHOON KIM |
| | Inkoid | $4.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Spacecowboy | |
| | KOLOSS | · EA | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Breakpoint One, Simmation |
| | Dragon and Phoenix | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | pengjianNiu | |
| | click frenzy | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | bulbafan |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.