Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Flight game?

Flight + Arcade

Of 247 developers who shipped an Arcade Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 293 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 138 developers shipped in the last year and 293 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 293 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 247
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $748 → $300 → $416 → $300 → $359 → $269 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 247
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,955)
Developers, 2 yr 247
Released games 920
Announced 293
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,913 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 128 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 293 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 2019 · $83M The Crew™ 2 2018 · $78M Project Wingman 2020 · $14M Nuclear Option 2023 · EA · $6.2M EVERSPACE™ 2017 · $5.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
Spin Rhythm XD older $19.99 3,788 97% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,271,664) Super Spin Digital
Redout: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,438 84% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,769) 34BigThings srl
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
ROGUE FLIGHT $19.99 279 96% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Truant Pixel, LLC
Wild Blue Skies $14.99 251 58% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Chuhai Labs, VITEI BACKROOM Inc.
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
Starbreed $10.99 271 95% 8.1k $89k (exactly $89,349) RegulusNSFW
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Raiden NOVA | 雷電NOVA | 雷電新星 $29.99 66 72% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) MOSS Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.