Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Alternate History

Only 5 developers shipped an Alternate-History Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Headquarters: Cold War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $360 against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $33,289)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 46
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 9,921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 13 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit 2018 · $4.5M Combat Mission Shock Force 2 2020 · $1.1M KILL la KILL -IF 2019 · $990k Cook, Serve, Delicious! 2!! 2017 · $959k Romance of the Three Kingdoms IX with Power Up Kit 2017 · $513k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
KILL la KILL -IF older $19.99 1,651 72% 50k $990k (exactly $990,105) Arc System Works, APLUS Co., Ltd.
Cook, Serve, Delicious! 2!! older $14.99 2,133 90% 64k $959k (exactly $959,210) Vertigo Gaming Inc.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms IX with Power Up Kit older $29.99 570 84% 17k $513k (exactly $512,829) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Jamestown older $9.99 652 94% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Final Form Games
Romance of the Three Kingdoms VIII with Power Up Kit older $19.99 168 67% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Tenshouki with Power Up Kit HD Version older $54.99 56 62% 1.7k $92k (exactly $92,383) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms V with Power Up Kit older $19.99 105 78% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SCP: EVENT CLASSIFIED · EA older $9.99 208 41% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Archotech
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
Colossal Kickoff $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Lambdog Studios
Election FighterZ: Kamala vs trump $2.99 4 100% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Steven Silverstein
Election: Run for President $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Digomind
Altus Chess-Archaic Beginnings $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Arcane Architecture Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.