Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Flight game?

Flight + Alternate History

Only 10 developers shipped an Alternate-History Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sexy Iron Maidens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $359 → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $898 (exactly $898)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 34
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 75% positive over 154 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $360, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Aggressor 2021 · EA · $103k Aircraft Evolution 2018 · $60k Fire and Steel 2021 · $43k Aces of the Luftwaffe - Squadron 2018 · $42k I dont Fall 2024 · $35k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aggressor · EA older $19.99 172 61% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Flashpoint Studios
Aircraft Evolution older $8.99 221 80% 6.6k $60k (exactly $59,604) Satur Entertainment
Fire and Steel older $6.99 203 81% 6.1k $43k (exactly $42,569) Kreatin Studios
Aces of the Luftwaffe - Squadron older $14.99 94 74% 2.8k $42k (exactly $42,272) HandyGames
I dont Fall older $6.99 169 84% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) PUMPKIM
Interkosmos older $4.99 201 82% 6.0k $30k (exactly $30,090) Ovid Works
1971: Indian Naval Front older $14.99 57 68% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) Neosphere Interactive Studios
Interkosmos 2000 older $19.99 36 69% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Ovid Works
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
Aery - A New Frontier older $9.99 53 98% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,884) EpiXR Games UG
Air Hares $8.99 14 100% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) Wondoro LLC
JETPACK BIRDIE $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Alexey Kuleshov
Fantasy Air-Sea Battles Showdown $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) WANG WENJIE
Flight Weapon $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Dying Tiger Studios AB
Pirates of Gravitae $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Innerverse Games
Time of War - Airstrike · EA $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Complex Games Studio
Soviet Tide Arising! $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Page Blue House
Struggle $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Galactic Lake
Cosmic Rift: Zero-G Experiment – Rift War 1944 $9.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IrishPaddyVr studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.