Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Aliens

Of 30 developers who shipped an Alien Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 545% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $2.2k → $120 → $2.6k → $390 → $538 (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $77,695)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 71
Announced 31
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 545% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cartoony, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $390, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $77k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
ROLLING STAR $11.99 216 96% 6.5k $78k (exactly $77,695) NUL2 STUDIO
Looking for Aliens older $7.99 235 95% 7.1k $56k (exactly $56,330) Yustas
Hyper Team Recon $19.99 74 100% 2.2k $44k (exactly $44,378) Nathan Burton
Sophstar older $9.99 94 100% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Banana Bytes
D-Corp older $19.99 36 77% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Frogsong Studios
Alien Apocalypse · EA $17.99 27 48% 810 $15k (exactly $14,572) Umbu Games
Plan B from Outer Space: A Bavarian Odyssey older $12.49 31 90% 930 $12k (exactly $11,616) RobotPumpkin Games
Cellular Harvest older $6.99 39 97% 1.2k $8.2k (exactly $8,178) Nate Berens, Strange Scaffold
Flewfie's Adventure older $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Cosmic Boop, Valorware
Gravity's Edge $7.99 26 100% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Kassle Games LLC
BeDo $4.99 39 100% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Felipe Jimenez, Reborilux
GLOOPALAXY $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Felis Major
Disc Frenzy $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) SupraOrbital Studios
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero
Fishing The Sky $3.99 8 37% 240 $958 (exactly $958) MewCoco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.