Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Minigames

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames Adventure game?

Adventure + Minigames

Of 58 developers who shipped a Minigames Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2809 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 71 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Minigames
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $898 → $11k → $6.7k → $5.9k → $6.7k → $4.5k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Minigames: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,712)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,991)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,334,066)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 198
Announced 71
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Minigames; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 27,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $24.99 36,950 95% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,701,415) Red Dot Games
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Yakuza: Like a Dragon older $19.99 28,036 93% 841k $17M (exactly $16,813,189) RGG Studio
Like a Dragon: Ishin! older $39.99 4,891 80% 147k $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) RGG Studio
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life older $19.99 7,017 92% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) RGG Studio
Later Alligator older $17.99 2,749 96% 82k $1.5M (exactly $1,483,635) SmallBü, Pillow Fight
LEGO® Party! $39.99 1,112 87% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,334,066) SMG Studio
Shenmue III older $29.99 1,028 75% 31k $925k (exactly $924,892) YS NET
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Parallel Experiment $9.99 702 84% 21k $210k (exactly $210,389) Eleven Puzzles
The Trolley Solution $9.99 574 77% 17k $172k (exactly $172,028) byDanDans
Mayor May Knott $24.99 189 100% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Ravenous Images
I Just Want to be Single!! Season One · EA $14.99 260 75% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) m., Tsundere Studio
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.