Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Adventure game?

Adventure + Traditional Roguelike

Of 89 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 119 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 119 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $12k → $479 → $239 → $899 → $1.3k → $449 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $34,783)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 194
Announced 119
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Traditional Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,583 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds21 devs · median $192k · 54 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Dungeonmans older $14.99 1,089 90% 33k $490k (exactly $489,723) Adventurepro Games LLC
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Reignbreaker $9.99 444 75% 13k $133k (exactly $133,067) Studio Fizbin
Cataclysm: The Last Generation $6.99 281 89% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,926) Worm Girl
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Indies' Lies 2: Fire Seed $14.99 73 67% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) Fun Square Games
Girl Frame $14.99 69 68% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Meow Run, Cat Shine
Lucha Chess · EA $8.99 60 86% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,182) Jorge T.V.
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
Boardlike · EA $12.99 27 70% 810 $11k (exactly $10,522) Bozz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.