Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Adventure game?

Adventure + FMV

Of 144 developers who shipped an FMV Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 151 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $39k, ×81 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $5.9k. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 151 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 81.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 151 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 144
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $11k → $26k → $75k → $13k → $76k → $37k (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 144
Bottom 30% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Median $39k (exactly $38,661)
Top 25% $132k (exactly $132,498)
Top 5% $712k (exactly $711,846)
Developers, 2 yr 144
Released games 488
Announced 151
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, FMV; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 43,141 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.9k, median $39k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.9k. 4 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 151 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  3. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  6. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  7. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  9. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  10. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds21 devs · median $192k · 54 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
428: Shibuya Scramble older $49.99 3,767 94% 113k $5.6M (exactly $5,649,370) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games)
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Rebooted Fate $14.99 1,846 95% 55k $830k (exactly $830,146) Jilin miaomiao, 山与海工作室
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
SIFU Kidnapped! Adventure in the Women's Kingdom $9.99 2,537 95% 76k $760k (exactly $760,339) 次元边界

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.