Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Adventure game?

Adventure + Incremental

Of 384 developers who shipped an Incremental Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 420 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 420 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 420 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 384
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $6.1k → $1.7k → $1.9k → $1.3k → $657 → $897 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 384
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 5% $125k (exactly $125,431)
Developers, 2 yr 384
Released games 1,172
Announced 420
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Point & Click, Idler, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 42,811 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 237 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 420 games are announced against 228 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  10. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds21 devs · median $192k · 54 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Moncage older $14.99 5,127 92% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,612) Optillusion
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Boxes: Lost Fragments older $14.99 3,244 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,827) Big Loop Studios
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
To The Core older $7.99 5,087 92% 153k $1.2M (exactly $1,219,354) SomethingExtra
Chicken Police - Paint it RED! older $19.99 1,624 94% 49k $974k (exactly $973,913) The Wild Gentlemen
Swag and Sorcery older $12.99 2,318 54% 70k $903k (exactly $903,325) Lazy Bear Games, Uroboros Games
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Rock Bottom $7.99 1,747 94% 52k $419k (exactly $418,756) Logan Games
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
Loot of Baal $8.99 1,372 62% 41k $370k (exactly $370,028) Gleamer Studio
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
RATSHAKER™ $2.99 3,011 92% 90k $270k (exactly $270,087) Sunscorched Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.