Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Adventure game?

Adventure + Gambling

Of 44 developers who shipped a Gambling Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×7129 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 65 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 65 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $8.2k → $836 → $2.5k → $1.3k → $449 (still earning) → $932 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,805)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 103
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Gambling; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Card Game
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 50,914 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $810, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
All in Abyss: Judge the Fake $15.99 375 54% 11k $180k (exactly $179,888) ACQUIRE Corp., WSS playground
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Metro Sim Hustle older $9.99 352 75% 11k $105k (exactly $105,494) Departure Interactive
Midnight Mahjong older $6.99 227 64% 6.8k $48k (exactly $47,602) AleCubicSoft
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
DOLLMAKER $8.99 45 97% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) STH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.