Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Adventure

Of 20 developers who shipped an Adventure Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3615 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 53 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $269 → $10k → $19k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,370)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 67
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 9,508 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Star Dynasties older $30.99 421 70% 13k $391k (exactly $391,404) Pawley Games
Pax Nova older $24.99 397 53% 12k $298k (exactly $297,631) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Cosmonautica older $9.99 948 48% 28k $284k (exactly $284,116) Chasing Carrots
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Ambition: A Minuet in Power older $20.99 334 85% 10k $210k (exactly $210,320) Joy Manufacturing Co.
Your Crown Is Mine $18.99 34 82% 1.0k $19k (exactly $19,370) Lyyycaena
Irbet Tong $6.99 56 100% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Kyhynngy Oyuur
CODE: PANDORA 2 $9.99 35 74% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Towndarktales
Donutal $9.99 30 93% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Arc System Works
Alexandria IV $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) J. M. Beraldo, Time Galleon
Space Trader Corps $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) D Squires

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.