Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Action RPG?

Action RPG + Wargame

Of 34 developers who shipped a Wargame Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2663 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 58 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $2.1k → $4.6k → $2.7k → $3.1k → $148 (still earning) → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 100
Announced 58
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 31,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms 2025 · EA · $4.0M Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond 2020 · $3.0M Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun 2024 · $2.3M ZeroSpace 2026 · EA · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond older $39.99 2,466 65% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,958,460) Respawn Entertainment
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Han Xiongnu Wars older $6.99 2,200 67% 66k $461k (exactly $461,340) Shangshi Studio
Broken Lines older $24.99 604 76% 18k $453k (exactly $452,819) BirdIsland/PortaPlay
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok · EA $29.99 31 83% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) BlackTale Games
Partisan $7.99 31 83% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Paradigm
Pass Tiger Cage · EA $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 中军MT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.