Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Action RPG?

Action RPG + Dating Sim

Of 31 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $44k, ×29 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $41M, ×27442 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $89k → $21k → $6.5k → $2.2M → $38k → $44k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $7.3k (exactly $7,266)
Median $44k (exactly $44,071)
Top 25% $741k (exactly $741,415)
Top 5% $41M (exactly $41,107,927)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 101
Announced 47
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 241,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.3k, median $44k, 1 in 4 over $740k, 1 in 20 over $41M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.3k. 5 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds44 devs · median $23k · 78 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M CODE VEIN II 2026 · $11M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Fate Seeker older $21.09 11,930 90% 358k $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) JSL Entertainment
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Fate/EXTELLA older $39.99 4,091 91% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,907,973) Marvelous Inc.
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Yakuza Kiwami $19.99 1,334 82% 40k $800k (exactly $800,000) RGG Studio
Mahou Arms $39.99 618 73% 19k $741k (exactly $741,415) Dischan Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.