Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Action game?

Action + Gambling

Of 57 developers who shipped a Gambling Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3315 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 106 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 106 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $716 → $718 → $599 → $836 → $1.5k → $1.6k (still earning) → $932 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 109
Announced 106
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 55,512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
KEEP GAMBLING $7.77 966 74% 29k $225k (exactly $225,175) WIRED FEELINGS
Metro Sim Hustle older $9.99 352 75% 11k $105k (exactly $105,494) Departure Interactive
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
Break Shoot $4.99 106 99% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) UPTRAND
LUCKROT $4.99 104 91% 3.1k $16k (exactly $15,569) OptiCube
ARSONATE $2.99 158 87% 4.7k $14k (exactly $14,173) Nash
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc
DOLLMAKER $8.99 45 97% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) STH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.