Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Action

Only 16 developers shipped an Action Diplomacy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rise of Piracy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 50 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 140% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $269 → $538 → $3.3k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 43
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Action; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action RTS, RTS
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 744 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Cepheus Protocol · EA older $19.99 2,983 76% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,905) Halcyon Winds
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
First Strike older $11.99 1,916 75% 57k $689k (exactly $689,185) Blindflug Studios AG
World Warfare & Economics · EA older $29.99 643 58% 19k $579k (exactly $578,507) Okron Studio
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Eville older $14.99 433 68% 13k $195k (exactly $194,720) VestGames
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Space Trader Corps $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) D Squires
Atomic City $1.99 16 87% 480 $955 (exactly $955) anthund
Fleetfall - Galaxy Domination $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Purple Owl
The Tavern Tales: Medieval Simulator · EA $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Flash Ray Games
RUPTURR · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Aikon Interactive
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko
President Race $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) WolffWare, BuffGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.