Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer FPS?

FPS + 3D Platformer

Of 200 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 308 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 308 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 308 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 200
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $896 → $1.3k → $898 → $239 → $748 → $299 → $345 (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 200
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,614)
Top 5% $199k (exactly $198,747)
Developers, 2 yr 200
Released games 670
Announced 308
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 38,314 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 149 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 308 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M Portal 2007 · $52M Indiana Jones and the Great Circle 2024 · $27M Hello Neighbor 2017 · $24M Neon White 2022 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
In Sound Mind older $34.99 5,467 95% 164k $5.7M (exactly $5,738,710) We Create Stuff
Turok older $19.99 3,377 93% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,187) Iguana Entertainment, Nightdive Studios
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
Twisted Tower $14.99 1,827 93% 55k $822k (exactly $821,602) Atmos Games
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Voodoo Fishin' · EA $9.99 800 81% 24k $240k (exactly $239,760) Lost Arcade
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.