Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Flight game?

Flight + 3D Platformer

Of 59 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 29 developers shipped in the last year and 60 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 60 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $748 → $359 → $179 → $359 → $479 → $208 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,007)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 177
Announced 60
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.20

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Simulation
Price point
$4.20 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.20.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,243 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bomb Rush Cyberfunk 2023 · $15M A Short Hike 2019 · $4.6M Exo One 2021 · $2.6M AER Memories of Old 2017 · $2.3M 轮回修仙路 2023 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bomb Rush Cyberfunk older $39.99 12,645 98% 379k $15M (exactly $15,170,206) Team Reptile
A Short Hike older $7.99 19,219 99% 577k $4.6M (exactly $4,606,794) adamgryu
Exo One older $16.99 5,053 89% 152k $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) Exbleative
AER Memories of Old older $14.99 5,064 86% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,281) Forgotten Key
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
AaaaaAAaaaAAAaaAAAAaAAAAA!!! for the Awesome older $9.99 535 81% 16k $160k (exactly $160,340) Dejobaan Games, LLC, Owlchemy Labs
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
Drifter Star: Evolution $3.99 1,165 73% 35k $139k (exactly $139,450) Kayla Studio
Night Stones $9.99 259 93% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Advance Nine
Glider Simulator $7.99 242 97% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,007) HFRK.
The AC130 slays the zombies. $3.99 377 63% 11k $45k (exactly $45,127) 汪双羽
Max Mustard $19.99 38 94% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Toast Interactive
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz
XFlight: FPV Drone Simulator $24.99 24 79% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Lingsrealm Technology
Little Wings Deliveries $4.99 87 88% 2.6k $13k (exactly $13,024) SkyBrave, Vort Digital, Jonathan Kihlst… (SkyBrave, Vort Digital, Jonathan Kihlström, Mount West Music)
Pocket and Zooom $15.99 16 75% 480 $7.7k (exactly $7,675) TechnoBrain
Soar: Pillars of Tasneem $19.99 10 70% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) Kimchi Corp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.