Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsSniper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sniper game?

Sniper

Of 77 developers who shipped a Sniper game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×354 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 108 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 108 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $683 → $1.0k → $1.2k → $5.7k → $624 → $240 → $600 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $222,295)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 326
Announced 108
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 67,750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sniper

7 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Sniper + Sci-fi Fair $600 9 devs
  2. Sniper + Military Poor odds $3.0k 28 devs
  3. Sniper + Modern Dead $17k 7 devs
  4. Sniper + Horror Dead $13k 6 devs
  5. Sniper + War Dead $3.0k 11 devs
  6. Sniper + Zombies Dead $1.5k 5 devs
  7. Sniper + World War II Dead $1.4k 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Zombie Army Trilogy older $44.99 14,285 85% 429k $19M (exactly $19,280,464) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Pih 2 $9.99 384 92% 12k $115k (exactly $115,085) BecomeANobody
MYRIAD DEATH $8.99 274 85% 8.2k $74k (exactly $73,898) IGNITION M, Clover Lab.,inc.
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Furry Aim Trainer $0.99 1,585 93% 48k $47k (exactly $47,074) Pantsu Productions
Lia: Hacking Destiny $14.99 92 96% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Orube Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.