Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim?

Outbreak Sim

Of 113 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1594 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 179 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 179 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $479 → $2.5k → $1.6k → $1.6k → $629 → $839 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 5% $757k (exactly $757,042)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 310
Announced 179
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Outbreak Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 54,994 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Outbreak Sim

6 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Outbreak Sim + Zombies Fair $1.9k 45 devs
  2. Outbreak Sim + Sci-fi Long shot $270 15 devs
  3. Outbreak Sim + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.2k 35 devs
  4. Outbreak Sim + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 11 devs
  5. Outbreak Sim + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.6k 15 devs
  6. Outbreak Sim + Horror Poor odds $1.4k 27 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Plague Inc: Evolved 2016 · $27M No More Room in Hell 2 2026 · $15M Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M No, I'm not a Human 2025 · $12M 60 Seconds! Reatomized 2019 · $5.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Plague Inc: Evolved older $14.99 59,205 94% 1.8M $27M (exactly $26,624,488) Ndemic Creations
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse older $19.99 1,781 89% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) Aspyr
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.