Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike

Of 2,803 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,828 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 4,828 games are announced against 1,724 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 4,828 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,803
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.6k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $629 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,803
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,015)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,031)
Developers, 2 yr 2,803
Released games 6,399
Announced 4,828
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,051,626 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 1,316 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,828 games are announced against 1,724 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Action Roguelike

57 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Action Roguelike + Alternate History Poor odds $449 33 devs
  2. Action Roguelike + Science Poor odds $360 12 devs
  3. Action Roguelike + Spaceships Poor odds $300 11 devs
  4. Action Roguelike + Noir Poor odds $210 21 devs
  5. Action Roguelike + Assassins Dead $449 12 devs
  6. Action Roguelike + Aliens Dead $358 134 devs
  7. Action Roguelike + Ninja Dead $269 22 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M Hades 2020 · $214M The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2014 · $187M Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M Dead Cells 2018 · $117M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Cult of the Lamb older $24.99 112,096 95% 3.4M $84M (exactly $84,038,371) Massive Monster
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.