Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Assassins

Only 12 developers shipped an Assassin Action Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DISORDER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178 → $60 → $3.2k → $3.4k → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,663)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 57% positive over 197 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DISORDER $29.99 123 50% 3.7k $111k (exactly $110,663) GRUMPY
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Kate: Collateral Damage older $7.99 82 92% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Ludic Studios
Dice Assassin older $2.99 76 69% 2.3k $6.8k (exactly $6,817) Afil Games
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Eruption 爆发 · EA older $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) DBH
Santa's Hitlist CEO Edition $3.99 28 96% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Unlucky Studios, UnluckySaurus (Erick R… (Unlucky Studios, UnluckySaurus (Erick Ramirez))
Band of Brigands older $11.99 9 88% 270 $3.2k (exactly $3,237) ProtoGames
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
Panda legend older $1.00 35 74% 1.1k $1.1k (exactly $1,050) 淤馨致志科技有限公司
Shadowlight $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Unangwata
DeadEye: A Roguelike Shooter · EA $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) AliceCatto
Cat Packs - Bushido Blade $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Flood City Games
Stealth Maker $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) VirtualGameStudio
Speed Tactic Ninja $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Helmi Blub

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.