Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Science

Only 12 developers shipped a Science Action Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Genome Guardian 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×414 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.8k → $2.3k → $360 → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,552)
Top 5% $197k (exactly $196,677)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 31
Announced 31
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 92% positive over 477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition 2020 · $939k Genome Guardian 2024 · $256k Genome Guardian 2 2026 · EA · $197k Crawling Lab 2024 · $107k REPLIKATOR 2022 · $21k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
Genome Guardian older $11.99 711 92% 21k $256k (exactly $255,747) Alpherior
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Crawling Lab older $4.99 713 83% 21k $107k (exactly $106,736) eTIRUe
REPLIKATOR older $5.99 115 85% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) R_Games
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Survivor Cells older $9.99 37 78% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) YAW Studios
Lifeforms: Binary Fission older $9.99 29 65% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Vystyk Games
Nova-111 older $4.99 54 79% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Funktronic Labs
COLLAPSE COMPANY · EA $8.99 28 89% 840 $7.6k (exactly $7,552) VOLT-TECKS GAME STUDIO
Chemical Combat $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) SigmoidDev
Swarm Sweeper $2.99 7 100% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Hi-Develop
Evoscape $11.99 1 100% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Magic Mill
COLD BOOT $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) DIG Games
Active 2048 Body Control $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SeriousGames.LOL
Deadline:Aphelion · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Merlyn
Labyrinthesis $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) crabbyCoder

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.