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Should I ship a Word Game Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Word Game
Of 224 developers who shipped a Word Game Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 336 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×19 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×2141 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 336 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,242) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,789) |
| Top 5% | $255k (exactly $254,721) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 224 |
| Released games | 677 |
| Announced | 336 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Word Game
- effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Visual Novel, Word Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Interactive Fiction, Adventure
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 44,970 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 129 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 336 games are announced against 147 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M 
月に寄りそう乙女の作法 2022 · $4.2M 
Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M 
Far Away 2021 · $3.0M 
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall 2026 · $3.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
| | 月に寄りそう乙女の作法 | older | $39.99 | 3,462 97% | 104k | $4.2M (exactly $4,153,361) | Navel |
| | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
| | Far Away | older | $12.99 | 7,598 94% | 228k | $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) | Gratesca |
| | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring | older | $13.99 | 6,310 95% | 189k | $2.6M (exactly $2,648,307) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Sweet Home | $7.99 | 9,910 94% | 297k | $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) | 开心茶房 | |
 | WILL: A Wonderful World / WILL：美好世界 | older | $14.99 | 4,588 92% | 138k | $2.1M (exactly $2,063,224) | WMY Studio |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 | |
 | 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 | $9.99 | 3,682 90% | 110k | $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) | 莓夜工作室 | |
 | S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH | $13.99 | 2,324 90% | 70k | $975k (exactly $975,383) | U0U Games | |
 | V-LOVER! | $10.99 | 1,439 89% | 43k | $474k (exactly $474,438) | Hentopia | |
 | Misty Judgment | $8.99 | 1,170 92% | 35k | $316k (exactly $315,549) | 次元边界 | |
 | Mr Right Simulator | $12.99 | 724 94% | 22k | $282k (exactly $282,143) | 男神模拟器工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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