Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + War
Should I ship a War Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + War
Of 38 developers who shipped a War Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2448 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 59 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,285) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 143 |
| Announced | 59 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- War
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 16,187 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Muv-Luv Alternative 2018 · $4.1M 
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall 2026 · $3.0M 
Baldr Sky 2019 · $2.3M 
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth 2026 · $1.5M 
Wars and Roses 2022 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Muv-Luv Alternative | older | $39.99 | 3,447 95% | 103k | $4.1M (exactly $4,135,366) | aNCHOR Inc. |
| | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
| | Baldr Sky | older | $49.99 | 1,524 93% | 46k | $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) | Sekai Project |
| | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
| | Wars and Roses | older | $19.99 | 2,435 42% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,460,270) | Blaze Worlds |
 | Shao Song I | $14.99 | 2,671 81% | 80k | $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) | 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐 | |
 | Conquer the world | $12.99 | 1,996 92% | 60k | $778k (exactly $777,841) | 互动之星 | |
 | Flowers -Le volume sur ete- | older | $19.99 | 1,205 99% | 36k | $723k (exactly $722,638) | Innocent Grey |
 | Ravager | · EA older | $19.99 | 909 93% | 27k | $545k (exactly $545,127) | 4MinuteWarning |
 | VenusBlood HOLLOW International | older | $44.99 | 287 96% | 8.6k | $387k (exactly $387,364) | Ninetail, Dualtail |
 | Lavender Quartz 境界秤動 | $11.99 | 300 95% | 9.0k | $108k (exactly $107,910) | Edanoue, Inc. | |
 | A Foreign World | $19.99 | 167 84% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $100,150) | HighbornTiger | |
 | Sunrider Legends Tactics | $29.99 | 40 80% | 1.2k | $36k (exactly $35,988) | Love in Space | |
 | Ashes of War | $9.99 | 77 96% | 2.3k | $23k (exactly $23,077) | CAT'S TOOTH STUDIO | |
 | Hello Girl | $6.99 | 94 97% | 2.8k | $20k (exactly $19,712) | Imo Team | |
 | Cycle of Struggle: Ardengrad | · EA | $9.99 | 51 98% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $15,285) | Visionary Impact |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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