Do I ship it?

Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Typing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Typing Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Typing

Of 30 developers who shipped a Typing Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×30 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×8196 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 37 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Typing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $628 → $446 → $897 → $3.7k → $3.9k → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Typing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,495)
Top 5% $975k (exactly $975,383)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 85
Announced 37
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Typing
effort 1 / 10 · high · keyboard input against a word list

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel, Typing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Text-Based, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 14,102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homicipher 2024 · $3.3M Her Story 2015 · $2.5M Emily is Away <3 2021 · $1.8M S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH 2025 · $975k AI2U: With You 'Til The End 2026 · $932k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Emily is Away <3 older $9.99 6,036 91% 181k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,989) Kyle Seeley
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
AI2U: With You 'Til The End $14.99 2,073 87% 62k $932k (exactly $932,228) AlterStaff Inc.
7 Days to End with You older $7.99 3,327 87% 100k $797k (exactly $797,482) Lizardry
MINDHACK · EA older $12.99 712 93% 21k $277k (exactly $277,466) VODKAdemo?
Turlock Holmes older $9.99 897 80% 27k $269k (exactly $268,831) Find the Lamp Games
Black Lily's Tale older $18.99 438 86% 13k $250k (exactly $249,529) 1000-REKA
Uncover the Smoking Gun older $19.99 414 96% 12k $248k (exactly $248,276) ReLU Games, Inc.
Hymer 2000 $4.99 1,031 89% 31k $154k (exactly $154,341) doBell
Sofia in Exchange for Lies $25.99 164 81% 4.9k $128k (exactly $127,871) MUTAN, storynote
PROJEKT GODHAND $15.80 158 96% 4.7k $75k (exactly $74,892) Anarch Entertainment
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio
Millennium Whisper · EA $11.99 82 64% 2.5k $29k (exactly $29,495) Parable Studios
S-mail $2.50 286 90% 8.6k $21k (exactly $21,450) S-mail制作组
Gumshoe Detective Agency: The First Case $9.99 56 73% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) Birdy Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.