Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Western

Only 16 developers shipped a Western Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nightmare Frontier, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×223 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $269 → $9.6k → $3.4k → $180 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,646)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,194)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 39
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.66 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.66.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 636 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hard West 2015 · $2.5M Hard West 2 2022 · $2.4M Arco 2024 · $1.3M Nightmare Frontier 2026 · $140k The Feud: Wild West Tactics 2020 · $82k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
The Feud: Wild West Tactics older $29.99 91 58% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Galaxy Pest Control
DEAD END COLOSSEUM SS $10.99 138 83% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,499) TLACHTLI
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Age of Grit older $14.99 39 69% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) IQ Soup
GUNCHO older $4.99 69 92% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Arnold Rauers, Terri Vellmann, Sam Webs… (Arnold Rauers, Terri Vellmann, Sam Webster)
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
Luck of the Draw $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) SuperFake Games
Rootin' Tootin' Lootin' & Shootin' $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Raspberry Jam
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher
西部枪手 · EA $0.99 23 100% 690 $683 (exactly $683) 比岛礁石

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.