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Should I ship a Visual Novel Turn-Based Tactics?
Turn-Based Tactics + Visual Novel
Of 84 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1175 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 136 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,172) |
| Top 5% | $738k (exactly $737,705) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 84 |
| Released games | 258 |
| Announced | 136 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Tactics
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Tactics, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 22,729 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + TanksFair
- + AutomationFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DiceFair
- + MiningFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + PlatformerLong shot
Comparable games
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M 
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M 
Sora no Kiseki the 1st 2025 · $9.4M 
Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M 
Banner of the Maid 2019 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
| | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
| | Digimon Survive | older | $59.99 | 3,124 78% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) | HYDE, Inc. |
| | Banner of the Maid | older | $16.99 | 6,580 86% | 197k | $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) | Azure Flame Studio |
 | StarVaders | $24.99 | 3,760 97% | 113k | $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) | Pengonauts | |
 | Persona 5 Tactica | older | $59.99 | 1,526 74% | 46k | $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) | ATLUS |
 | Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen | older | $59.99 | 1,328 93% | 40k | $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) | AQUAPLUS |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki | older | $49.99 | 1,316 91% | 39k | $2.0M (exactly $1,973,605) | Nihon Falcom |
 | Utawarerumono: Mask of Truth | older | $39.99 | 1,461 96% | 44k | $1.8M (exactly $1,752,762) | AQUAPLUS |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- | $57.99 | 765 77% | 23k | $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Shao Song I | $14.99 | 2,671 81% | 80k | $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) | 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐 | |
 | Demonschool | $24.99 | 984 91% | 30k | $738k (exactly $737,705) | Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse | $19.99 | 340 77% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | EXLIX | |
 | Menherarium: Deadly Dice | $8.99 | 669 92% | 20k | $180k (exactly $180,429) | テスカトリポカ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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