Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Turn-Based Combat

Of 908 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,662 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×653 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,662 games are announced against 529 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,662 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 908
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $7.5k → $3.0k → $3.2k → $2.4k → $1.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 908
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,780)
Top 5% $410k (exactly $410,086)
Developers, 2 yr 908
Released games 2,531
Announced 1,662
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 145,388 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 449 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,662 games are announced against 529 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.