Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Trivia

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trivia Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Trivia

Only 17 developers shipped a Trivia Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 11 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Trivia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.9k → $30 → $150 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Trivia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $419 (exactly $419)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 41
Announced 11
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Trivia
effort 1 / 10 · high · question bank and scoring

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel, Trivia; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Incremental, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 127 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $150, 1 in 4 over $410, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Majotori older $5.99 1,880 96% 56k $338k (exactly $337,836) Majorariatto
你已经猜到结局了吗 older $7.99 388 92% 12k $93k (exactly $93,004) 橘音
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
Medieval Fantasy Survival Simulator older $1.99 252 96% 7.6k $15k (exactly $15,044) Randumb Studios
MAELSTROM LEGACY: The Tesla Mystery $10.99 36 69% 1.1k $12k (exactly $11,869) Wistfulware
Emma - In the Library older $4.99 50 68% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Ace X
みんなでクイズ ラビィとふしぎな惑星 older $6.99 20 100% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) LabyLab
Japanese Romaji Adventure older $9.99 10 60% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) JBO Media
One More Question $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) OrangeSounds
Cute Girl older $0.99 84 75% 2.5k $2.5k (exactly $2,495) Cute Girl corp
Medieval Questionnaire $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) MedievalQuest
Algaza-ha: Quest Giver $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Algaza-ha
Estrella Quest $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Estrella Dev
ISLAND OF VALKYRIES $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) SUCCUBUS ZONE
Important People of History: Presidents - George Washington $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Sunny Demeanor Games
Niji Protocol $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Crispy Fried Tofu Studios
Damn Love $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Stupid games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.