Do I ship it?

GamesTanksTanks + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tanks Wargame?

Tanks + Wargame

Of 53 developers who shipped a Tanks Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×1531 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tanks + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $1.1k → $9.3k → $239 → $3.2k → $1.3k → $33k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tanks + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,384)
Top 5% $961k (exactly $961,308)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 218
Announced 85
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tanks
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tanks, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 32,123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tanks with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HistoricalFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 26 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  3. + Turn-Based TacticsFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  4. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Open WorldFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  6. + 2D PlatformerFair11 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds13 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  9. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds18 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $4.0k · 19 announced
  11. + Real Time TacticsPoor odds22 devs · median $3.2k · 38 announced
  12. + TacticalPoor odds49 devs · median $2.5k · 85 announced

All 71 pairs on the Tanks page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad older $49.99 8,749 79% 262k $13M (exactly $13,120,875) FOR-GAMES CR LTD
Men of War II older $44.99 5,614 60% 168k $7.6M (exactly $7,577,216) Best Way
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Airships: Conquer the Skies older $24.99 6,197 95% 186k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) David Stark
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
The Great War: Western Front™ older $34.99 2,733 66% 82k $2.9M (exactly $2,868,830) Petroglyph
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Armored Brigade II $39.99 147 87% 4.4k $176k (exactly $176,356) Veitikka Studios
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
D.O.T. Defence $14.99 196 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $88,141) Rattleaxe Games
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.